Forecast
Bullish dollar view pays off
Investors Bank & Trust tops the year-to-date one-month index after increasing its focus on economic fundamentals which led to a more bullish view on the dollar, said Tim Mazanec, senior FX strategist at the bank in Boston.
Rabobank finds the winning formula in dollar correction
Rabobank tops both the one month and one month year-to-date forecasts this week after changing its dollar view at the end of last year, said Stuart Ritson, FX strategist at the bank in London.
Correction forecasting wins out
Danske Bank’s rise to the top of the one month year-to-date rankings follows a revision of its forecasts in late 2004, said Niels From, senior FX strategist at the bank in Copenhagen.
HVB climbs through the ranks
HypoVereinsbank (HVB) has steadily climbed the rankings since the start of 2005 to top the one-month ranking.
JP Morgan takes winning view
JP Morgan has shot to the top of the three-month forecasts following a different focus on the dollar, according to John Normand, FX strategist at JP Morgan in London.
Forecast traders hit the top
Forecasters who trade are often more accurate, according to Marios Potaczala, chief executive and head of trading at Warsaw-based TMS Brokers, which came top of the three-month ranking. "I traded spot for many years, and this experience has helped in…
Rising dollar trend to continue
With the euro/dollar on its way towards its peak of 1.3652 on December 31, most analysts predicting rates a month down the line on December 17 missed the greenback’s subsequent rally to 130.87 by January 17. Pronet Analytics was helped to the top of the…
Further dollar falls needed
ANZ came top of the one-month forecast this month, with forecasts less than 1% out across every currency pair except for the dollar/swissie, where the bank was 1.1% out. For the euro/dollar pair the antipodean bank benefited from a lower prediction than…
Gain ahead of the pack in 2004
Gain Capital topped the ranking for both one-month and three for 2004. Mark Galant, chief executive of the FX services provider, puts this success down to a combination of knowledge acquired from many years spent at banks and the ability to benefit from…
Dollar’s fall catches out FX rate forecasters over three months
The extent to which the market has been surprised by the extent of the dollar’s fall over the last quarter is demonstrated by the FX Week three-month forecasts. Three forecasters saw a divergence of more than 13% from the actual spot rate on euro/dollar…
Banking on a e/$ breakout
Saxo Bank and Deutsche Bank attained the top two spots in the three-month forecasts this week, with accurate positions on euro/dollar. Deutsche Bank came closest to picking the extent of the euro's strength against the greenback.
Dollar weakening underestimated
A view that the Japanese authorities would intervene to protect the level of the dollar led much of the market to underestimate the extent to which the greenback would weaken against the unit, according to Ray Attrill, director of research at 4Cast. The…
Swissie sways FX sentiment
While the euro/dollar pair has continued to grab the headlines over the past month for its unpredictability, it is the Swiss franc/greenback pairing that has caused forecasters the most difficulties.
Size of dollar fall surprises
With a swing of more than 9% in the euro/dollar pair in the month to November 22, banks underestimated the size of the dollar's fall across the board. But BNP Paribas, which ranked top for the one-month forecasts this week, picked up on the dollar's…
Dollar to fall after G20 summit?
The G20 summit on Saturday could presage another drop in the dollar against the euro, according to forecasters on the FX Week Currency Forecasts Index, speaking last week.
Sea-change in EUR/USD views
The lifetime high in euro/dollar last week – breaking through 1.30 briefly on Wednesday (November 10) – has prompted most contributors on the FX Week Currency Forecasts Index to revise their euro/dollar forecasts upwards.
ABN Amro revises forecasts
ABN Amro is among the banks revising currency forecasts in response to an increasingly bearish outlook for the dollar.
Dollar bears' hopes realised
The dollar bears on the FX Week Currency Forecasts Index saw their wishes fulfilled last week, as euro/dollar finally broke through the upper limit of 1.26 denied it since mid-February. But the euro's rise caught some forecasters off-guard, as they had…
Are consensus forecasts useful?
Analysts differ over the tools they use to put together their currency forecasts. Some rely on macro fundamentals, economic data forecasts or flow data, while others rely purely on technical indicators.
Lack of volatility in US/£ pair
There has been little divergence in views on cable over the last few weeks in the FX Week Currency Forecasts Index, reflecting lack of volatility in the currency pair.
ABN Amro revises forecasts
ABN Amro is among the banks revising currency forecasts in response to an increasingly bearish outlook for the dollar.
Late summer lull aids accuracy
The FX markets are experiencing a late-summer lull, as the major currency pairs continue trading in the tight ranges in which they have been stuck for the past few months. That inactivity has fed through to the FX Week Currency Forecasts Index, with very…
Non-bank players take the lead
Analysts at banks are lagging behind in FX forecasting, according to the Currency Forecasts Index. Trading firms are in both top spots on the year-to-date index, while research firm 4Cast is this week's best three-month forecaster.