Forecast

Pound holds up against dollar and euro

Cable has seen significant volatility over the past three months, according to the FX Week Currency Forecasts Index. Sterling peaked at 1.8771 on July 19, with a low of 1.7709 on September 8.

UBS sees euro at $1.40 in a year

Apart from a brief dip below 1.20 in mid-May, euro/dollar has been bouncing between 1.20 and 1.25 per dollar since the end of February – a period of relative price stability for the pair, which rose a massive 20 big figures in the preceding six months.

Calyon picks the dollar recovery

The current broad dollar recovery, which saw euro/dollar dropping three big figures and sterling/dollar sinking by nearly five in just two weeks, has caught out many in the FX market. But Calyon was not at all surprised, explained Mitul Kotecha, global…

August trading floors forecasters

August may be providing plenty of opportunities for traders, as sharp moves slice through the seasonally thin markets. But the price volatility is creating havoc for FX forecasters in the unpredictable environment, according to the FX Week Currency…

Sharp moves hit 3m forecasts

The past three months have been one of the most difficult for forecasting quarterly currency moves since the FX Week Currency Forecasts Index launched at the start of this year.

IGM calls Swissie's 3m rise

The Swiss franc appreciated more than 5% over the past three months, as disappointing eurozone data made it a better comparative bet than euro against the sinking dollar. The Swiss National Bank's surprise June 16 interest rate hike, and much better than…

Consistency offers rewards

Few forecasters have been successful at both one-month and three-month currency forecasting over the past three months, our Index reveals. Only Westpac (top three-month forecaster and 10th place one-month forecaster) and Bank of Nova Scotia (6th place…

HSBC reverses its fortunes

HSBC, which last month was languishing near the bottom of the FX Week Currency Forecasts Index, is this week the top one-month forecaster. The bank's aggregated majors forecasts, submitted May 21 and tested against spot on June 21, were out by just over…

Consensus forecasts win out

Consensus forecasts are commonly seen as a reliable indicator of future currency moves, and our Currency Forecasts Index proves this – to a degree.

Swissie rise snares forecasters

Dollar/Swiss was the most difficult currency pair to forecast over the past month, as the Swissie's 5% rise against the greenback took it from 1.3019 on May 7 to 1.2370 on June 7. Average % accuracy on one-month forecasts submitted by the 38 banks on our…

RBS is top 12m forecaster

Forecasting currency moves over a 12-month horizon is a difficult discipline. In addition to negotiating unexpected economic data, interest rate differentials and trader psychology, the successful forecaster must also contend with geopolitical risks - a…

Oil troubles yen forecasting

Yen was the most troublesome currency to forecast throughout May, as the soaring cost of oil hit oil consumer Japan’s unit – and with it, yen forecasting accuracy.