Forecast
Bullish US dollar stance pays off
HBoS Treasury Services tops this week's 12-month forecast rankings, owing to a bullish stance on the US dollar the bank has held since early 2005.
Calyon points to cyclical factors
LONDON – French bank Calyon has cemented its top five position in all three historical tables by maintaining its year-long view that cyclical factors are the dominant driving factor for currencies.
Westpac benefits from yen weakness
Two non-consensus views have helped lift Westpac to the top of the three-month forecast rankings, according to Geoff Kendrick, senior currency strategist at the bank in London.
Rabo outperforms with strong dollar view
Rabobank's decision to go against the conventional wisdom of a dollar decline has kept the Dutch bank near the summit of the one-month historical index.
SEB's greenback loyalty pays off
SKANDINAVISKA ENSKILDA BANKEN'S (SEB) 14-month loyalty towards a positive US dollar – dating back to late 2004 – has seen the bank rewarded with the top spot in the one-month rankings and one-month historical index.
IB&T benefits from euro/dollar accuracy
Investors Bank & Trust (IB&T) has moved up 18 places to number four in the one-month rankings, as it reaps the rewards of its accuracy in predicting euro/dollar.
Bearish dollar view supports JP Morgan
JP Morgan has climbed up the table to take top spot in this week's three-month forecasts rankings, owing to a committed but moderate bearish dollar view.
Support for the greenback is fading
The factors supporting US dollar strength are starting to wear off, according to Trevor Williams, chief economist at Lloyds TSB Financial Markets in London.
TMS reaps benefits of US strength
TMS Brokers' purple patch in the 12-month rankings follows the firm's bullish dollar view it adopted a year ago, said Jarosaw Mikoajczyk, managing director at the Polish firm in Warsaw.
Swissie and yen to see strength
The Swiss franc and yen are likely to be the strongest currencies against the dollar this year, according to Calyon's FX valuation models.
BMo benefits from dollar strength
Bank of Montreal (BMo) has started the year in style by topping the one-month forecast for the second successive week, owing to accurate US dollar predictions.
Yen reverses weakening trend
The yen staged a comeback last week, reversing a trend of weakness against the greenback seen since June, when dollar/yen hit 108.17.
Dollar strength hits accuracy
Wide-of-the-mark forecasts mean the three- and twelve-month rankings have seen more and more inaccuracy in recent weeks, with an average divergence this week of 6.39 and 12.4, respectively.
Dollar to keep rising, says Rabobank
Rabobank has maintained its position at the summit of the year-to-date one-month index largely thanks to its bullish view on the dollar.
BarCap sticks to core view
Barclays Capital's (BarCap) presence in the top five of the one- and three-month rankings in recent weeks is due to the UK bank sticking to its core view on the dollar.
Calyon still bullish on greenback
Calyon's consistent lead in the one-month and three-month year-to-date rankings is due to a bullish dollar view held since late 2004.
Sterling’s glass half full
Rabobank has gone against market sentiment by maintaining an optimistic stance on the sterling, with a belief that the British economy is more resilient than the market thinks.
Calyon picks rates as dollar driver
Calyon’s good run of form in the one-month and three-month year-to-date rankings has been driven by a view that the dollar’s weakness would not persist. The French bank argued that the US current account deficit would not continue to act as a drag on the…
Sterling/yen aids Informa
Informa Global Markets’ top three placing in each of the five rankings is due to its accuracy in sterling and yen, said Pete Luxton, global markets adviser at Informa Global Markets in London.
BNP cautions on the dollar
The dollar has gained support from expectations of further rate hikes by the Fed. But Ian Stannard, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas in London, warns that risks lie ahead for the greenback.
Dollar strength to continue
Investor Bank & Trust continues its ascent up the three-month rankings as its commitment to a bullish dollar view pays off.
BarCap predicts dollar fightback
Barclays Capital has moved up the ranks in the one-month forecast by accurately predicting US dollar weakness in August would be short-lived.
Katrina adds to uncertainties
Recent events, notably hurricane Katrina, have jolted currency markets out of recent stability. This helped Bank of Montreal race towards the top of the three-month ranking as it predicted a weaker dollar in June.
GFT tops the trend-spotters
GFT tops the three-month year-to-date forecasts this week by focusing on technical analysis, fundamentals and sentiment to obtain short- and long-term perspectives for determining currency trends, said Paul Jamgotch, managing dealer.