Forecast
An eye for changing drivers aids Calyon success
Calyon has held on to top-five rankings in the 12-month and 12-month historical index since mid-July. Mitul Kotecha, global head of foreign exchange research at the French bank in London, pointed to three factors underpinning its success.
Summer doldrums leave markets range-bound
Forex traders have seen a host of factors hitting the market in the past month, according to Matthew Foster-Smith, senior currency strategist at Thomson in London.
GFT benefits from low-vol prediction
ADA, MICHIGAN – Online currency trading firm Global Forex Trading (GFT) has been by far the most consistently accurate forecaster for the three-month period this year. It has topped the three-month historical index every week since March 13. Its short…
Lloyds benefits from strong sterling
A view that sterling would soar against the US dollar saw LloydsTSB Financial Markets claim top spot in the one-month table, with a forecast for cable of 1.87 against an average prediction of 1.85.
RBC wins on restrained dollar view
RBC Capital Markets came top of the one-month forecast table by refusing to get caught up in dollar hype.
Calyon sees dollar weakness continuing
Market sentiment about the US dollar in April and early May deteriorated markedly, according to Mitul Kotecha, global head of foreign exchange research at Calyon in London.
Market shorts greenback too soon
Rabobank tops this week's one-month forecasts as it correctly identifed the risk that the market had become overly aggressive in its expectation of continued dollar depreciation.
Greenback bears win in three-month
Being a dollar bear was an easy call to make three months ago, according to Matthew Foster-Smith, senior currency strategist at Thomson in London, which is the top forecaster over this period.
Emerging markets prediction pays off
BNP Paribas put its recent turnaround in the three-month ranking down to an approach that saw it anticipate a downward trajectory for the dollar that would be interrupted by periods of strength.
Sentiment key to FXCM success
Combining technical and fundamental forecasting has helped Forex Capital Markets (FXCM) top the 12-month rankings, according to Kathy Lien, chief strategist in New York.
Independence aids Saxo forecasting
Saxo Bank's "non-partisan, non-bureaucratic approach to market forecasting" keeps it at the summit of the one-month historical index, according to Kristian Siggaard Jensen, FX market strategist at Saxo in Copenhagen.
DrKW leads with bearish dollar view
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein (DrKW) tops this week's three-month rankings due to its commitment to a bearish dollar view, said Tim Fox, FX strategist at the bank in London.
Barclays Capital picks dollar decline
Barclays Capital is ahead of the pack in the one-month historical index. It moved from fourth to second last week and tops the table this week.
Dollar focus in H1 set to continue
The focus on the dollar seen in the first half of the year is likely to continue for the rest of 2006 according to Matthew Foster-Smith, senior currency analyst at Thomson Financial in London.
Looking beyond US interest rates
The key themes underpinning most bearish US dollar forecasts have been the Fed ending its tightening cycle and a slowing US economy.
V for victory in US dollar forecasts
Calyon has achieved consistent top-five placings in four of the six tables because it has "stuck to its guns" for the past 18 months, according to Daragh Maher, senior FX strategist in London.
Rates and deficits driving the dollar
The foreign exchange markets are continuing to play 'tug-of-war' between interest rate differentials and the US twin deficits, according to Tim Mazanec, senior currency strategist at Investors Bank and Trust (IB&T) in Boston, Massachusetts.
Danske downgrades dollar expectations
Danske Bank has made a substantial revision to its EUR/USD forecasts, expecting it to reach levels close to 1.28–1.30 during the summer, driven by a Fed pause and increased anxiety about global imbalances.
Dollar entering a defensive phase
Informa Global Markets remains top of the 12-month rankings, following accurate predictions in EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Informa correctly forecasted 1.23 and 1.76 against means of 1.30 and 1.83 respectively.
Carry trades driving the greenback
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB) increased its average accuracy in the one-month historical index by accurately predicting a USD/JPY of 118. The mean forecast was 116.
Dollar remains supported for now, says ABN Amro
ABN Amro has topped the one-month rankings forecast and places second in the three-month thanks to its sceptical take on bearish greenback sentiment, according to Tony Norfield, global head of foreign exchange strategy in London.
No change is good news for forecasters
Investors Bank & Trust (IB&T) has moved into the top five of every forecast category, making it the most consistently accurate forecaster across the board so far in 2006.
SEB paints bright US economic picture
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB) maintains the bullish dollar view that has seen it remain at the top of the one-month historical table since February 6. It has held a positive view on US economic growth despite EUR/USD depreciation of nearly 10% over…
Greenback revival draws to a close
The US dollar is unlikely to see a repeat performance of the strong gains made in 2005 this year, said Jeff Cooper, vice-president, FX, at Bank of Montreal (BMo) in Toronto.