Forecast
Dollar slowdown "only short-term"
Saxo Bank tops the one-month ranking, following its decision to "ease back the pedal on the dollar strength projections".
The greenback correction
Rabobank has maintained its consistent position at the top of the year-to-date one month forecast by anticipating the greenback's correction that began in early June, said Jeremy Stretch senior market strategist at the Dutch Bank in London.
The longer-term picture
Top-ranking forecasters get their feel for the direction of currencies from varying market indicators.
Emerging markets on the rise
Maintaining a consistently bullish view on the dollar has helped HBOS Treasury services top the three-month rankings.
Cyclical factors maintain greenback's strength
Calyon has maintained its dominance of the 12-month ranking because it has been consistently bullish on the dollar for the past year, according to Mitul Kotecha, global head of FX research at the French bank in London.
Euro 'particularly vulnerable'
Pronet Analytics tops the one-month ranking this week following a realignment of its view on the dollar.
BNP tops by picking dollar rally
BNP Paribas has jumped 10 places to top the one-month ranking, following its prediction that the dollar would rally, driven by interest rate and growth differentials.
Indicators hit the mark
GFT Forex tops the three-month year-to-date rankings for the fourth consecutive week by focusing on technical indicators and market sentiment in its analysis of the US dollar.
Gaining from oppostion
4Cast tops the one-month ranking following positions taken on the opposing forces of interest rate differentials and the twin deficits in the US, said Chris Furness, senior market strategist at the firm in London.
Bullish dollar outlook wins out
Rabobank has maintained its recent dominance of the one-month and one-month year-todate rankings by retaining a moderately bullish outlook for the US dollar throughout 2005.
Dollar strength despite deficit
Investors Bank & Trust topped the one-month ranking thanks to an accurate prediction on the market’s attitude to the US twin deficits (current account and budget) earlier this year, which led it to a stronger dollar forecast (FX Week, March 7).
Calyon gets it on cable
Calyon and HSBC were closest in predicting where sterling would end up for their three-month forecast. They both posted 0.126% divergence for cable in the three-month ranking.
Correction for greenback pays off
Online forex trading firm MG Financial tops the one-month ranking following its decision to correct its EUR/USD forecast back in early April, said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst in New York.
No soft patch for the dollar
Bank of Montreal (BMo) tops the three-month ranking with a view that the US economy would not go through the soft patch some of the other banks were predicting.
Bullish dollar view wins out
Informa Global Markets and HBOS top the three-month and one-month tables, respectively, by sticking with a bullish view on the dollar.
Yen to take over as main driver
Australia and New Zealand Bank’s (ANZ) loyalty towards continued dollar strength has paid off, as it tops this week’s one-month ranking.
Divergent views on greenback
Pronet Analytics is maintaining its aggressive 12-month view on the dollar because it believes its recent recovery will end soon, said Karen Griffith, chief currency strategist in London.
Lloyds wins out on dollar decline
Lloyds TSB tops the 12-month ranking again as it maintains its view that the dollar will continue to decline given the US deficit situation.
Behind the dollar rebound
MG Financial tops this week's three-month YTD forecast by looking for dollar-corrective moves, said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst at MG Financial in New York.
Rabobank’s bullish dollar view pays dividends
Rabobank came top of the three-month forecast thanks to a bullish view on the dollar. The Dutch bank posted a forecast of 1.28 for the euro/dollar pair, slightly below the actual rate of 1.2923. Only one other bank forecast the greenback to be stronger…
4Cast rides out dollar corrections
Chris Furness, senior currencies strategist at 4Cast in London, says resisting the temptation to chase prevailing spot rates into the longer term allowed 4Cast to top the one-month and 12-month forecasts.
FXCM's three-pronged approach
Forex Capital Markets (FXCM) has topped the three-month forecast using a combination of fundamental, technical and market indicators in its analysis, said chief strategist in New York, Kathy Lien.
Saxo loyal to bearish view
Saxo Bank tops the three-month index for the fourth consecutive week, thanks to its continued bearish dollar outlook, said John Hardy, FX strategist at Saxo in Copenhagen.