Are consensus forecasts useful?


But according to the FX Week Currency Forecasts Index, the consensus forecasts of the 40 banks on our index – into which all these analytical methods feed – is not a bad indicator.

Examining the one-month euro/ dollar forecasts on the Index for the year-to-date, reveals an average divergence of just 1.77% between consensus views and the actual spot rate one month later.

Easing off

While March was a difficult month in terms of forecasting accuracy – the divergence hits its year-to-date high of

Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.

To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact customer services -, or view our subscription options here:

You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact to find out more.

Sorry, our subscription options are not loading right now

Please try again later. Get in touch with our customer services team if this issue persists.

New to FX Markets? View our subscription options

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a FX Markets account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an indvidual account here: