Opinion/Trading
The fog of war
What should you do when near-term uncertainties cloud the FX outlook? Concentrate on the medium term and rely on the fundamentals, say Yianos Kontopoulos (right) and Marcel Kasumovich, FX strategists at Merrill Lynch in New York
The outperformance chooser option
Gavin Simms, head of FX strategies at Goldman Sachs in London, summarises an options solution for a euro-denominated corporate client looking to hedge sales in the US and Switzerland
The fog of war
What should you do when near-term uncertainties cloud the FX outlook? Concentrate on the medium term and rely on the fundamentals, say Yianos Kontopoulos (right) and Marcel Kasumovich, FX strategists at Merrill Lynch in New York
Aussie calls offer no worries hedge
Sara Sullivan, senior manager, FX options sales at ANZ Investment Bank in London, summarises an options solution for a corporate client concerned about a reversal of the AUD strength against the USD.
War and the dollar
Near-term dollar direction will now depend on the length and ‘success’ of the war. But those factors are far from certain, says Jake Moore, FX strategist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo.
Sterling caught in the middle
The relationship between sterling/dollar and euro/dollar has broken down since the start of the year, resulting in sterling’s recent under-performance, says Lena Komileva (right), EMEA economist at Prebon Marshall Yamane in London.
After feast comes famine for the dollar
The US dollar may have been feasting on inflowing money in recent years but, says Pete Luxton, global economic adviser at MMS International in London, it is now going hungry
Bloc boosting
Rising commodity prices and high yields have boosted the ‘dollar bloc’ currencies, and the trend is set to continue, says David Mozina, head of G10 FX strategy at Banc of America Securities in New York
Trichet still best bet for ECB job
Jean-Claude Trichet’s trial is not an insurmountable obstacle to his accession to ECB presidency. But while the outcome is uncertain, French officials must come up with a back-up candidate, says Stephen Sandelius, Paris correspondent for Market News…
A focus on partnerships
Vision, transparency and communication are key to FX outsourcing partnerships, says Kiril Alexiev, assistant vice-president in Global FX Strategic Alliances at ABN Amro in Chicago
Digital strike combats Korean hedging worries
A local importer in South Korea with upcoming dollar payables would be wise to consider a digital strike forward as tensions increase in North Korea, says Charlie Brown, head of structuring and solutions for global FX options at Standard Chartered Bank…
Give every DOG its day
The threat of war in Iraq, and the political and financial fallout, has brought dollar weakness. But this narrow focus ignores a more telling relationship across the asset classes -- that of dollar, oil and gold, says Gerald Ashley
Lessons in FX
Rob Carnell, senior international economist at Commonwealth Bank in London, reveals the lessons to be learned from the last 12 months in FX -- but warns that 2002’s peacock could always be this year’s turkey
Ports in a storm
Uncertainties surrounding the euro and the dollar mean investors should look further afield to avoid geopolitical risks, says Craig Larimer, managing director, international research group, Banc One Capital Markets in Chicago
Will white labelling stick?
Citigroup’s new white-label service has prompted interest from other banks. But a number of problems must be overcome before they can launch similar products, says James Kemp, London-based managing director of UK technology firm Stentra
2003: year of the euro?
2003 could be a good year for the euro and the yen, but the outlook is not so healthy for the US dollar, says Jesper Dannesboe, chief FX strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London
Freezing assets
We could be in for an abrupt change in climate. Steen Jakobsen (right) and John Hardy reveal how to adapt your portfolio to a new Ice Age
Calm before the storm?
Averting a potential war in the Middle East may not be enough to change the dollar’s tone, says Monica Fan, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in London
Correlation key for forex returns
For greater returns in the FX markets, investors should examine the correlations between different currency pairings, says Peter Luxton, economic adviser at MMS International
Online FX: a revolution in the making
Corporates and institutions have embraced the idea. Now, the market will judge which platform best serves their needs, says Stephen Smit, managing director, Global Link, Europe
Dollar finds its wings
The eurozone’s short-term advantage over the dollar has peaked. Citigroup, winner of FX Week ’s Best Bank in Research & Strategy Award, remains bullish on the US unit, says Robert Sinche, global head of FX research at Citigroup in New York
That sinking feeling
Policy flexibility and high productivity have supported the dollar, but they aren’t enough to turn the tide of weak growth and negative technical signals, says Francesca Fornasari.
Germany: the eurozone laggard
There are several positive influences on the euro, but the German economy is holding the currency back, says Nick Bennenbroek, international economist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York
Short-term divergence
Traders seeking to exploit medium-term misalignments in FX rates should take a close look at euro/Norwegian krone and dollar/Swiss franc trends, says Aziz McMahon, FX strategist at ABN Amro in London