Short-term divergence

Both euro/Norwegian krone and dollar/Swiss franc are trading significantly below our central value estimates based on medium-term flows. While the drivers of this divergence may persist for some time yet, we expect this extreme condition to unwind over time, taking these rates back closer to their central values (currently around 7.70 and 1.5500, respectively).

The krone has pushed the euro steadily lower since early 1999, but the rate of appreciation has accelerated since the start of the year.

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