Opinion/Trading
Dollar weakness to continue into 2004
Dollar weakness can be expected for many months to come and could continue even longer than first anticipated, says Michael Rosenberg, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank in New York
‘Extendible forward plus strategy’ for corporates with sterling exposures
Barclays Capital’s senior FX structurer, Ben McMillan, suggests an ‘extendible forward plus’ strategy to enable a corporate with a stream of sterling receipts to lock in an enhanced minimum cable rate but participate in any further moves to the upside
MoF/BoJ re-enter FX market
The continuing weak economy and the growth differential between the US and Japan will become more pronounced over the course of this month, allowing the dollar/yen to regain the 115 level, say FX strategists Lauren Germain (right) and Uwe Parpart at Bank…
The post-G7 environment
The latest G7 communiqué seems dramatic compared with recent years, but it is logical and consistent over the longer term, says Simon Derrick (right), head of currency research at the Bank of New York in London
Total return analysis: currencies vs bonds
Establishing the risk and return characteristics of holding a currency position sometimes necessitates presenting a more formal economic interpretation of an FX transaction, says Robert Balan, head of financial market strategies at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen
Asian currencies set to outperform
Asia is heading for a period of sustained growth. And with high US budget and current account deficits, the region is likely to replace the US for leading global economic growth, says Hans Redeker, global head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas in London
The hedge that lets you ride the wave
David Faller, Chicago-based head of FX options at BMO Financial Group in Chicago, and Evan Steed, FX options trader in Toronto, suggest a cost-effective hedging strategy to enable a Canadian exporter to fully hedge 12 months of equal US dollar…
Aussie’s halcyon days are not over
The Australian dollar’s strong rise in the first half of the year may have fallen off, but that does not mean its best performance is behind it, says Michael Jansen, market strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney
Forward hedge overlay for euro
A Middle Eastern importer could change its risk profile by overlaying its forward hedges, says Charlie Brown, head of structuring and solutions at Standard Chartered in London. By pairing euro puts at lower levels with euro calls, the importer can assure…
Changing seasons
Summer volatility in a number of emerging markets is not unusual. Indeed, in the currencies of central and eastern Europe (CEE) it is the rule rather than the exception, says Callum Henderson, head of emerging markets research at Bank of America (BoA) in…
Asian central banks favour liberalisation
Recent developments suggest a move towards liberalisation rather than revaluation in Asian currencies, says David Mann (right) economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London
Dual deposits reap high-yield rewards
Ray Franzi, head of FX structuring at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London, offers an opportunity for customers to achieve high Japanese yen deposit rates
Time for Asian exporters to 'switch'
Phileas Wong, associate director of risk management advisory at HSBC in Hong Kong, explains how switchable forwards could help exporters in Asia hedge the risk of local currency strength
The euro: a relief valve for imbalance
As the dollar's decline is set to continue, the euro bears the brunt of the global trade imbalance, says Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York in New York
Time to sell dollars with bonds
With global demand for savings rising, minimal growth in the savings pool, and shifts in notions of sovereign risk for debtor countries such as the US, it is time to sell dollars, says David Gilmore, partner at FX Analytics in Essex, Connecticut
Participating in rupee options
Following the launch of rupee options trading in India in July, Arun Khurana, head of financial markets distribution & derivatives marketing at ABN Amro in Mumbai, proposes a zero-cost 'participating forward' solution for an Indian client wanting to…
Resetting forward solution for Korean exporters
Gail Sheridan, financial engineer at UBS in Singapore, offers a hedging solution for Korean companies looking to guard their US dollar revenues against the possibility of a strengthening won
Dollar decline likely to be over for now
Strong US data and stock market resilience point to a halt in the dollar’s decline, says Jesper Dannesboe, chief FX strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London
Mitigating euro/krona uncertainty
FX quantitative strategist Giovanni Pillitteri and corporate risk structurer Bertrand Nortier at Deutsche Bank in London present a solution for a Swedish client to monetise flow uncertainty and participate in case of the Swedish krona weakening
Candollar cartwheels
The Bank of Canada’s unexpected rate cut caused the Canadian dollar to do an about face after strengthening 13% against the US dollar in the year to date. But we can still expect Candollar strength later this year, says Lara Rhame, FX economist at Brown…
Asset sales support baht and rupiah
A wave of asset sales and privatisation in Indonesia and Thailand looks set to strengthen the Indonesian rupiah and Thai baht, says Irene Cheung (right), Asian sovereign and FX strategist at ABN Amro in Singapore
A ‘worst-of’ option to hedge dollar weakness
Andy Kaufmann, FX structurer at Merrill Lynch in London, explains a solution for an investor who is looking to benefit from a USD move against a variety of currencies
Fed reserved
For all its talk of deflation, the Fed fails to walk the walk, says Alan Ruskin, research director at 4Cast in New York
Dollar and US stocks decouple
The positive correlation between US stocks and the dollar has seen a turnaround, and this is unlikely to reappear in the near future, says Niels Christensen, senior currency strategist at SG in Paris