Dollar decline likely to be over for now

On July 16, we recommended selling the US dollar against the euro. Since then, euro/dollar has rallied to the key 1.15--1.16 resistance area. This has led us to review all relevant dollar drivers. We conclude that the dollar is unlikely to depreciate much from here. In fact, there is a potential case for it to appreciate over the coming weeks.

Given the risk of significantly stronger US data and the recent resilience of the US stock market, we are recommending closing short dollar positions

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