Dollar and US stocks decouple

Statements frequently heard on the FX market are: ‘The dollar is moving higher on the back of higher US stocks’, and ‘the dollar is firmer as US stocks are expected to open higher’. And there is nothing strange in that, or is there? In the second quarter of this year, US stocks made the strongest rally seen since 1998, and still the dollar fell to a historical low versus the euro.

There has been a strong positive fit between US stocks and the dollar in the past – a fit that translates into a

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