War and the dollar

The war has begun, and initial market reaction has been positive for stocks, negative for bonds and negative for the dollar. For the US currency, this may reflect uncertainty concerning whether the war would occur or not being replaced with uncertainty over its outcome. The key question now will be whether the unwinding of the short dollar trade has further to run or whether these new uncertainties will limit upside pressure on the currency. The length and ‘success’ of war will determine the

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