Opinion/Trading
The final frontier
Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co in New York, evaluates the investment prospects for the frontier markets
G-10 currencies face a grim 2008
John Hydeskov , senior FX analyst at Danske Markets in Copenhagen, predicts the road ahead for G-10 currencies in light of an ongoing financial crisis
Pegging hopes on GCC currency reform
Marios Maratheftis, Dubai-based regional head of research for Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan at Standard Chartered, calls for currency reform by the GCC
Safety in numbers
Global FX strategists Niels From and Sebastien Galy at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt and London illustrate the perils of strategy diversification with a strategy based on current account extremes
Woe is USD
The US financial crisis needs to deepen to realise a structural super-bearish USD view, says Mike Gallagher, director of research at IDEAglobal in London
How to prepare for reduced volatility
In the aftermath of credit-related market turmoil, Neil Mellor, currency strategist at The Bank of New York Mellon in London, suggests a way to prepare for a return to more historically typical levels of volatility
Central banks: the gorillas of FX
Chris Turner, head of FX strategy research at ING wholesale banking in London, evaluates the possibility of FX sterilisation by central banks next year
G-10 carry trades survive the crunch
Perhaps the biggest conviction Lehman held during this summer’s credit market shock was that the unfolding events would drastically alter the foreign exchange market. Most notably, we thought the carry-centric world that had dominated in recent years…
All eyes on Asia
Divyang Shah, chief strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in London, says Asian equities and commodity markets hold clues on the AUD/USD parity debate
The value of a fall
The dollar might be in serious trouble, but its fall could also be its salvation, according to David Bloom and Paul Mackel of HSBC's FX strategy team in London
Will intervention work?
European Central Bank intervention could spark a battle with the foreign exchange market, says Mitul Kotecha, head of global foreign exchange research at Calyon in London
Talk of revaluation
The independent monetary stance recently taken by many Middle East states is likely to add to speculation about a revaluation, according to Chris Turner, head of FX strategy research at ING wholesale banking in London
Is the dollar dross?
Pete Luxton, global markets adviser, and Shant Movsesian, FX options manager, at Informa Global Markets in London, seek ways to benefit from the flagging US dollar
Norwegian krone joins the high-yield club
Ian Stannard, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas in London, surveys the NOK's earning potential
Timing the USD decline
A 50 basis point Fed cut has confirmed that USD cyclical support is fading rapidly, according to Niels From, global FX strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt
G-10 foreign exchange is no longer unbreakable
The G-10 trading environment remains fragile at best, and the growing dislocation between equity and credit markets is becoming more worrisome, according to David Mozina at Lehman Brothers in New York
Retail forex traders will bounce back
Retail foreign exchange traders were among the hardest hit in the August turmoil, where risk aversion led to a sharp reversal in carry trades. But it looks like many market participants haven't been deterred from pursuing the potentially lucrative…
Tough times ahead for US dollar
Mike Gallagher, director of research at IDEAglobal in London, evaluates the outlook for the US dollar amid prospects for lower US growth and rates
Carry-trade capitulation
When the market turmoil subsides, the yen will give up some of its 2007 gains in 2008 and will remain undervalued by past norms, says Gabriel de Kock, Citi's global currency economist in New York
Capitalising with caps
Loïc Henry, head of Paris FX structuring at French Bank Calyon, suggests the introduction of caps when participating in spread options
Risk aversion favours the dollar
The greenback is, paradoxically, likely to benefit from the recent spate of risk aversion brought on by the subprime crisis, writes Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief currency strategist at UBS Investment Bank in London
FOMC slouches towards neutrality
According to Robert DiClemente , chief US economist at Citi in New York, the lingering policy bias should not dissuade markets from anticipating an eventual reversal
EFX options broking sparks into life
Competition in electronic FX options broking is intensifying, with electronic brokers rolling out new tools to capture the growing business opportunity.