Market voice

Looking beyond the US dollar

If 2007 was the year the US sneezed, 2008 promises to be the year in which the rest of the world catches a cold, says Cameron Umetsu, currency strategist at Nomura International in London

SWFs under pressure to disclose

Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, looks at why the issue of sovereign wealth fund transparency is such a heated one

Yen stands strong

Philip Brass, global head of CitiFX flows in London, predicts a prolonged period of yen strength as holders of short yen positions change their investment strategies

Coming on strong

Lydia Kranner, analyst at RZB in Vienna, evaluates the prospect of Chinese yuan appreciation in 2008

The final frontier

Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co in New York, evaluates the investment prospects for the frontier markets

G-10 currencies face a grim 2008

John Hydeskov , senior FX analyst at Danske Markets in Copenhagen, predicts the road ahead for G-10 currencies in light of an ongoing financial crisis

Pegging hopes on GCC currency reform

Marios Maratheftis, Dubai-based regional head of research for Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan at Standard Chartered, calls for currency reform by the GCC

Safety in numbers

Global FX strategists Niels From and Sebastien Galy at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt and London illustrate the perils of strategy diversification with a strategy based on current account extremes

Woe is USD

The US financial crisis needs to deepen to realise a structural super-bearish USD view, says Mike Gallagher, director of research at IDEAglobal in London

Central banks: the gorillas of FX

Chris Turner, head of FX strategy research at ING wholesale banking in London, evaluates the possibility of FX sterilisation by central banks next year

G-10 carry trades survive the crunch

Perhaps the biggest conviction Lehman held during this summer’s credit market shock was that the unfolding events would drastically alter the foreign exchange market. Most notably, we thought the carry-centric world that had dominated in recent years…

All eyes on Asia

Divyang Shah, chief strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in London, says Asian equities and commodity markets hold clues on the AUD/USD parity debate

The value of a fall

The dollar might be in serious trouble, but its fall could also be its salvation, according to David Bloom and Paul Mackel of HSBC's FX strategy team in London

Will intervention work?

European Central Bank intervention could spark a battle with the foreign exchange market, says Mitul Kotecha, head of global foreign exchange research at Calyon in London

Talk of revaluation

The independent monetary stance recently taken by many Middle East states is likely to add to speculation about a revaluation, according to Chris Turner, head of FX strategy research at ING wholesale banking in London

Timing the USD decline

A 50 basis point Fed cut has confirmed that USD cyclical support is fading rapidly, according to Niels From, global FX strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt

G-10 foreign exchange is no longer unbreakable

The G-10 trading environment remains fragile at best, and the growing dislocation between equity and credit markets is becoming more worrisome, according to David Mozina at Lehman Brothers in New York

Tough times ahead for US dollar

Mike Gallagher, director of research at IDEAglobal in London, evaluates the outlook for the US dollar amid prospects for lower US growth and rates

Carry-trade capitulation

When the market turmoil subsides, the yen will give up some of its 2007 gains in 2008 and will remain undervalued by past norms, says Gabriel de Kock, Citi's global currency economist in New York

Risk aversion favours the dollar

The greenback is, paradoxically, likely to benefit from the recent spate of risk aversion brought on by the subprime crisis, writes Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief currency strategist at UBS Investment Bank in London

FOMC slouches towards neutrality

According to Robert DiClemente , chief US economist at Citi in New York, the lingering policy bias should not dissuade markets from anticipating an eventual reversal

The effects of the subprime crisis

According to Michael Woolfolk , New York-based senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon, US market players will focus on evolving developments in the subprime crisis, with global equities the preferred barometer for market risk aversion

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