Looking beyond the US dollar
The US dollar was the clear loser in 2007, as the credit turmoil and economic slowdown were largely rooted in the US. Now the contagion from the US has started to spread more visibly overseas. The OECD leading indicators show a high degree of synchronicity among the G-3 and a sharp downswing coming into 2008, particularly for Japan. This meshes with the hefty downgrades in consensus estimates for real GDP in 2008. Again, Japan stands out, with growth projections being slashed 0.8pp since January
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