SEB: growth and commodity prices are key for emerging markets

If growth continues to slow, the EM FX sell-off will be prolonged

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Trade wars: tariffs will be a “manageable headwind” for EM currencies in Asia and Latin America if the spat does not escalate, says Hammerlund


Further signs of a global economic slowdown and lower commodity prices would weigh more on emerging markets currencies than a limited-scale trade war, says Per Hammarlund, chief EM strategist at SEB.

The US-China trade war materialised in a first round of tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports on July 6, followed by a second round on $16 billion of imports. Intensifying trade tension is, however, only a “contributing factor” in the weakness of EM currencies

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