The George Jnr-George Snr divergence trade

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PROBLEM: Comparing US economic cycles during the Bush Junior and Bush Senior presidential terms reveals some telling similarities. For dollar investors, the question of what stage the current cycle is at compared to the Bush Snr administration is a pressing one, as it could determine how much further the greenback has to fall.

We have all heard about the analogy made as to how both Georges fought wars (the Gulf war, followed by ‘Dubya Dubya 2’) against a henchman called Saddam; and how they both

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