Opinion
More terror likely to hit markets
The terrorist attacks that hit London are not the last we will see, and invetsors should react accordingly, says Andrew Busch, global market strategist at Bank of Montreal in Chicago
Predicting the unexpected
Extreme value theory is an effective way of predicting the large moves frequently seen in currency markets, says Collin Crownover, global head, investor risk advisory group at Citigroup in New York
Central Europe and Turkey: no cause for concern
The EU’s referendum/budget does not, as some have suggested, spell doom for central European currencies and the Turkish lira, says Meg Browne, head of FX research at Brown Brothers Harriman
Using probability for barrier placement
Mark Miklavs, director, structured derivatives at HBOS treasury services in London, develops an option hedging strategy to take advantage of the recent pick-up in volatilities by using normal distribution to provide a theoretical perspective on barrier…
Don't bank on a UK rate cut
A UK rate cut is far from a done deal, says Lee Ferridge, a proprietary trader at Rabobank International in London
Eurozone undermined by political concerns
Hans Redeker, global head of FX strategy at BNP Paribas in London, points to a return to awareness of political risk in the EU
Multi-hurdle barrier options
Remy Marino, head of structuring, interest rates, currencies and commodities at Calyon in New York, discusses how investors or hedgers can optimise the cost of their barrier strategies by utilising a multi-hurdle barrier option
Dollar recovery under strain
After recent strength the greenback looks vulnerable, according to London-based Lena Komileva, G7 Market Economist at Tullett Prebon
‘One size fits all’ is not appropriate
Sabrina Jacobs, FX strategist, capital markets, at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, says Asian currencies need to be looked at on an individual basis
‘FX markets are unreadable’
Foreign exchange markets are notoriously difficult to predict, so corporates shouldn’t bother, argues Simon Miles (right), currency strategist at Corporate FX. Instead they should focus on deciding how to hedge the risk so they can determine its real…
Euro returns to fair value
Stephen Jen, global head of currency research at Morgan Stanley in London, argues that the fall in the euro is more a reflection of the fact that the single unit was overvalued than a reaction to the ‘no’ votes in France and Holland.
Benefiting from yuan revaluation
The Lloyds TSB Financial Markets team suggests how to benefit if the Chinese yuan revalues and Asia follows suit
Skandies set to diverge
The Norwegian krone likely to strengthen against the Swedish krona in the short term, according to Emma Lawson, FX associate at Merrill Lynch in London
How to benefit from a weaker pound
For the currency manager looking to take advantage of fresh sterling weakness, Simon Derrick, head of Bank of New York's currency strategy team, describes a simple, low-cost way for them to express their view
Will sterling lead the USD?
Hans Redeker, global head of FX strategy at BNP Paribas in London, says recent strength in the dollar is likely to be short-lived
No need to shift the Hong Kong dollar peg
Tai Hui (right), economist at Standard Chartered in Hong Kong, presents four reasons why the Hong Kong authorities should not change the HK dollar’s peg to the greenback
More flexibility needed over renminbi rationale
Can USD/RMB rise? Asks Bhanu Baweja, FX strategist at UBS in Singapore
Profiting from a renminbi revaluation
Adam Cole, senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in London, looks for options strategies to play a China revaluation within a G-10 FX portfolio
No election fears for GBP
The most recent UK election update shows sterling political risks diminishing further, says Adam Cole, senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in London
Selling £/$ at favourable rates to the forward
UBS Currency Management Advisory Service suggests using a ratio callable forward to sell GBP/USD at more favourable rates than the prevailing market forward rates
Risk appetite and FX positioning
Richard Franulovich, currency analyst for Westpac in New York, says weaker US data is likely to lead to a weaker dollar
Capping downsides, tapping upsides
Jeffery Todd Lins (right), director of quantative analysis, and Peter Ager Hafez, senior research associate, at Saxo Bank, suggest a mechanism to cap the downside risk while allowing for upside potential in the absence of options on a currency fund
A cheaper way to take a bearish stance
Ian Stannard, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas in London, suggests using an anticipated short-term recovery to significantly reduce the cost of entering a longer-term bearish strategy on USD/JPY
When size matters
Political risk is not a factor sterling has had to contend with recently, but the UK's general election on May 5 might see this change, says Daragh Maher, senior currency strategist at Calyon in London