Trading like it’s 2008
We have already witnessed an alarming similarity between the fundamental backdrop in early 2008 and early 2011, including soaring food and energy prices, broad US dollar weakness and a hawkish European Central Bank.
For the second half of 2011, we see both good news and bad news. Unlike in 2008, G-4 policymakers (US, UK, the eurozone and Japan) have few levers left to stave off renewed recession. But we do not expect the global economy to tip back into recession – our base case is a ‘muddle
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