Diode decoupling

The most notable laggard is the UK, which defied expectations by recording its sixth straight quarterly fall in GDP in the third quarter. We have a cautious view of the global bounce and believe economies are likely to hit a soft patch next year, when some of the on-offs that are boosting growth fade (for example inventories in South Korea accounted for 2.4pp of the 2.9% growth rate in Q3).

In the Western economies, the softness of consumption is a key impediment to building a head of steam

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