China to stick with peg

Recent weeks have seen a considerable increase in tempo of comments from China’s leaders on prospects for the Chinese yuan, prompting suggestions that China may adopt a trade-weighted basket this year. Some suggest individual currencies included in the basket would be in line with China’s trading patterns, with the US dollar at about 20% – lower than the yen at about 25%.

We think the time when the dollar is de-emphasised to this extent is several years off. One Chinese colloquialism for the

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