A new crystal ball

Forecasting the Fed has always been more of an art than a science, but nowadays it is more difficult than ever. Usually the question boiled down to how much and which way. If growth was too far above potential, it implied inflationary risks, and the right medicine was to tighten rates. Or, if the economy was below potential, it hopefully implied a lack of inflationary pressure, making it safe for the Fed to lower rates.

But the Fed threw markets a curveball in the latest Federal Open Market

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