Who wins from yuan revaluation?
Our expectation is that, when the yuan is revalued in 2005, this will take the form of an ordered shift to a basket exchange rate target accompanied by a fairly modest revaluation of around 5%. But a sudden and more violent revaluation of the yuan remains a risk, so it is worth considering how G10 FX markets might react to a large one-off revaluation of the yuan. The framework we use is to assume markets move quickly to restore competitiveness, by offsetting falls in G10 currencies against the
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