Will payrolls break EUR/USD range?

The past four negative surprises on payrolls from the releases in February, March, July and August pushed euro/dollar higher by between 1% and 2% on the day of release. The rally in euro/dollar following the negative payrolls surprises in February, July and August was also extended by another 0.5–1% in the seven trading days after the release. But these effects failed to carry through the end of the month and establish a multi-week trend.

Turning to positive surprises on US payrolls, the pattern

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