What is oil telling us?

The price of crude oil for delivery in June is at the highest level since early October 1990. Our analysis predicts a peak between July and September, which could easily be above $50 per barrel.

With oil this high, it’s hard to see how the US economy could strengthen next year. Looking back at history and previous business cycles, a sharp increase in the price of oil is followed within twelve months by a recession.

Today, one could argue that crude oil at $40 is not a big deal. Petrol at the

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