New Europe's FX trials

Not all is well in 'New Europe' these days. Under the current conditions of relative overvaluation, weak external demand, disinflation dynamics and political impediments to accelerated reforms, the FX of CE-3 countries (Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic) is likely to be called to play the role of the primary adjustment variable over the near term. In this adjustment, the Hungarian forint stands out as the most vulnerable.

Structural, cyclical and political factors point to either an

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