SARB to cut before year-end?

Although a number of recent developments have skewed the risks towards the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) not cutting rates again this month or in December, we retain our view for one more 50 basis point cut this year. We believe the SARB wants to ease monetary policy from an economic and political perspective, and a number of factors back our view.

First, global oil prices jumped to a high of $52.67 per barrel on October 7. SARB governor Tito Mboweni stressed that the SARB would not react

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