More dollar pain before H2 rebound

Dollar negatives that are yet to be fully priced in are: the negative initial dollar reaction to the sharp backing up of bond yields that we foresee; upgraded expectations on growth and investment among traditional funders of the US current account deficit; the absence of any indication so far that major US current account adjustment is taking place; and weak dollar concerns potentially spilling into the pricing of commodity prices and oil.

We expect the existing dollar negatives to remain in

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