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Taco trades or fake news fatigue

Is another era of ‘will he, won’t he’ numbing rates and FX traders to its jeopardy?

Collage of Trump and tariff sign, Jay Powell and US dollars either side of a volatility spike chart
Credit: Risk.net montage

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. It’s a maxim on many traders’ minds as they try to gauge the authenticity – or otherwise – of US president Donald Trump’s pronouncements. 

When news broke on July 16 that Trump had drafted a letter to remove Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, the market hadn’t yet fully learned its lesson.

The initial shock value of noisy headlines prompted rapid curve steepening and twos/10s – a bet on a fall in short-term Treasury yields against rising

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