Hedge funds crowd into bullish Brazilian real trades

- By Cole Lipsky
- 01 Oct 2026

Macro hedge funds are piling into foreign exchange derivatives ahead of Brazil’s October 4 presidential election, with bets on a Flávio Bolsonaro win and a stronger real becoming an increasingly crowded trade.

Dealers say the most popular trades have been short-dated vanilla puts, digitals and risk reversals, anticipating a 4–8% appreciation in the Brazilian real against the US dollar following the first round of voting.

“Around 95% of all the BRL options trades at the moment are bullish Brazil

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