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PROFILE

Michael Wallace: Life At S&P’s MMS

Michael Wallace has been at MMS International since the mid-1990s. MMS--the forecasting and analysis arm of Standard & Poor’s, the worldwide rating agency--can rightly claim to be one of the most influential and widely read of all the information and analytics providers.

Wallace, an American by nationality, is shortly to return to the US as a senior economist for MMS based in San Francisco. The relocation--which will involve transplanting his wife and two children from their rural home in Buckinghamshire--will be the fourth since he started in Honolulu in the late 1980s.

Interview: Siddika Khalique

Can you give me a quick breakdown of your career to date?

My first job in foreign exchange was at the Bank of Hawaii as a proprietary dealer in FX between February 1987 and June 1988.

I then moved to work in the US Department of Commerce in Washington DC in the import compliance department.

In January 1993 I started work for Ruesch International, initially as an analyst, then as a fx dealer, a head trader and ultimately a senior analyst. The roles were in support of the fx requirements of mid-tier international clients. From 1989 to 1994 I was based in Washington.

It was also a particularly busy time for me as in the summer of 1993 I got my masters in business administration from the George Washington University.

From the end of 1994 and most of 1995 I was in London where I was head trader and European market analyst.

You then shifted to Standard & Poor’s. What was your first work there?

Initially I was a currency economist focusing on Europe. The section I work for, S&P’S MMS, does long-term economic forecasting and market analysis for foreign exchange, fixed income and equity markets.

What have been your achievements in Standard & Poor’s MMS?

As manager of currency analysis in Europe I oversaw operations which led to us winning four consecutive "Best Screen-based Analytic Service" awards from FX Week/Syntegra during my term--thanks FX Week!--and contributed forecasts which regularly ranked in the top of the Reuters FX poll, winning twice outright.

I had a role in key S&P MMS "calls" including the composition and timing of Emu. Spearheading the relaunch of the FX product twice in Europe was another project, once for Emu and again for the internet.

On an administrative level I’ve been responsible for redefining the role of analyst participation in the sales/support process--and making our product more responsive to our clients’ needs is a task that never ends.

Other responsibilities include contributing to global strategy guidelines for the company and ensuring the integrity and clarity of the FX product.

When did on-line analysis of the financial markets begin at MMS?

What was to become MMS was started by the legendary Bob Jones in the US in 1977. Initially it consisted of analysis of the treasury markets and a little of the currency markets.

Bob’s work took off quickly--it was a valuable service to the markets--and so in 1981 MMS set up offices in London. The company was bought by McGraw-Hill in 1988.

What are your plans for the future?

I am in a transitional phase at the moment as I’m being transferred to San Francisco as a senior US economist. I start there on March 10.

What’s exciting about what you’re doing now?

What’s exciting is a shift in focus which can stimulate some of the old grey matter. This is certainly the case for me. The work I have been doing for the treasury product so far has had more of a global focus on the bigger picture than had been the case on the currency product. It’s been a very stimulating change of pace.

Having the luxury of stepping back from the microscopic picture to examine the macro view is a welcome change for me. It has also come at a historic--and very exciting--time in the US treasury markets.

There has been a dramatic change of the US Treasury curve on expectations about the reduction of US bond issue and introduction of a buy-back scheme which have sparked significant turbulence of late.

Is there an academic side to you?

I do occasionally give seminar papers. Perhaps one of the more interesting was called ‘Currency Market Crossroads’ which I presented in Dubai and in Bahrain in 1997.

In some ways this was prophetic. Most of the major themes of the last year or so were dealt with.

I discussed the rise and rise of electronic broking in the FX industry and how it was unlikely to reduce volatility; the rapid integration of the sector through mergers; the regional shift in FX trading, the drive to have one centre working through 24-hour desks; and a timely warning about the shift to emerging market fx prompted by the approach of emu, which was entitled "Case Studies in Risk".

You’ve also been quite active in the media?

In many ways exposure in the media goes with the analysis work in that it publicizes MMS’s services.

Has any article particularly pleased you?

Yes, one piece I wrote about the Swiss National Bank was the result of meetings in Zurich. The SNB was undergoing huge changes in the way it conducted its monetary policy and business.

They were reducing the usage of traditional swaps and forwards in favour of a more modern internationalized system of electronic buy-back agreements.

This ranged from a review of traditional swaps and forwards to an internationalized system which came round to a much more modern system of electronic buy-back agreements.

The efficiencies and controls afforded by the real-time dealing and settlement was also combined with the broadening of operations. This included other currency baskets and foreign instruments which made it unique to the SNB.

At the time these dramatic changes were not widely publicized and the remarkable story needed to be told as an example of changes in monetary policy entering the 21st century.

What’s the big challenge facing banks’ foreign exchange departments?

You have to make sure you don’t lose touch with clients and technology may or may not be a real help with this. Every good salesperson knows that strong client relationships are important. And one way you can add value to this is by your attention to detail and a thorough knowledge of what’s going on in our markets.

So, if you want to expand your business you’ll want staff to help cement these client relationships. Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, for example, have been doing just this by recruiting some excellent key people to expand their foreign exchange business at the same time others are cutting back.

There’s also the question of size. Get too big and you risk losing track of your clients’ needs.

Getting it right here is just as important for information providers such as ourselves as it is for banks providing foreign exchange.

So, for example, if you are setting up a website for your customers you have to listen to what they want and tailor your site to their needs.

The internet makes things less personal and so, we need to cater to individual needs, to counteract less human contact. A better more customized internet service means more client satisfaction and durable relationships.

What are your expectations for the currency markets? What are the leading trends you see in the FX market?

The role of banks is gradually getting blurred. Corporates increasingly want to manage their currency exposures and their foreign assets directly.

By providing an internet trading capability, banks can deepen their corporate relationships beyond just execution.

How far has MMS taken on its own internet product?

We were the first off the mark with a comprehensive capital market web site, which allows clients to cross over from their own specific market to explore commodities, fixed income, forex, emerging markets and equities. This reflects demand in the market away from specialization towards more integrated information.

A strong brand has helped us forge deeper links with our clients and their own web offerings. The future looks bright, with more features and search engines on globalmarkets.com coming soon.

We are also making strides in supporting the buy-side investor community, with analytical support for trail-blazing e-brokers such as Charles Schwab.

We launched our MMS web site a couple of years ago. On the site MMS’s product is provided together in a package. We get feedback from clients and analysts go to clients with the aim of cultivating good working relationships with them. This is helped by the website.

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